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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T07:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27045/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME fades away quickly in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery, and the leading edge is diffuse. Source location is likely an eruption centered around N27W02 starting around 2023-09-22T06:00Z best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-14T07:24Z CME or possibly the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T05:13Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -41.25 hour(s)
Difference: 14.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-09-26T13:07Z

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